In 2031, the insured share of the population is projected to be 90.5%, similar to pre-pandemic levels. If current law provisions in the Affordable Care Act are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, the insured share of the population is projected to be 91.2%. It is expected to remain at that rate through 2023. Given the expiration of the Medicaid continuous enrollment condition on Maand the resumption of Medicaid redeterminations, Medicaid enrollment is projected to fall over 2023-2025, most notably in 2024, with an expected net loss in enrollment of 8 million beneficiaries. The insured percentage of the population is projected to have reached a historic high of 92.3% in 2022 (due to high Medicaid enrollment and gains in Marketplace coverage). The report contains expected impacts from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), including that people with Medicare prescription drug coverage (Part D) are projected to experience lower out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs for 2024 and beyond as several provisions from the law begin to take effect.ĬMS projects that over 2022-2031, average annual growth in NHE (5.4%) will outpace average annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) (4.6%), resulting in an increase in the health spending share of GDP from 18.3% in 2021 to 19.6% in 2031. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) Office of the Actuary released projections of National Health Expenditures (NHE) and health insurance enrollment for the years 2022-2031. Average annual growth in national health spending over the next decade projected to be 5.4%
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